Forecasts

Know the opening week before it happens

For every film opening in your countries, SEATmio forecasts the tickets of its first seven days as a range, updates it every day as presales come in, and shows what the figure rests on and how accurate it has been.

The expected first week, on the film card

A range, never one number: the lowest and highest likely ticket count for the first seven days, the most likely value, the date of the data and what it rests on, such as how films with similar presales grew from the same day before their premiere.

  • One range for each country you follow
  • Updated every day from about two weeks before the premiere
  • What it rests on, in one sentence
The expected first week of one film in one country: the range, the most likely value and what it rests on.
The expected first week of one film in one country: the range, the most likely value and what it rests on.

How we calculate it, in plain words

Every forecast opens a page that explains the method: what is forecast, how often it changes, the error we accept, and every signal we take into account, from presales and programming to interest, trailers, press, holidays and competition, with what is already in the model and what is still being collected.

  • Every signal listed with what it means
  • The accepted error and the share of results inside the range
  • No black box: the reasoning comes with the number
How we calculate it: the method, the accuracy targets and the signals behind the forecast.
How we calculate it: the method, the accuracy targets and the signals behind the forecast.

Every premiere with its forecast

The premieres list puts the expected first week next to presales, interest, screenings on sale and occupancy, so you see at a glance which releases will be big, which ones cinemas underestimate and where your film stands.

  • All films opening in the coming weeks
  • Sort and export with the forecast column
  • The same figures in the weekly report
Premieres with the expected first week next to presales, interest and screenings on sale.
Premieres with the expected first week next to presales, interest and screenings on sale.

Forecasts in the release planner

In the release date planner a film gets an expected first week for each candidate week, next to the competition, the holidays and how busy that time of year usually is.

  • Expected tickets for each candidate week
  • Differences between weeks explained
  • Also for films without a date in a country

Measured, not promised

Every forecast is checked against the real result once the film has opened, and the accuracy is shown next to the figure: the typical error and how often the result fell inside the range. The range widens when the data is thin.

  • Accuracy per country
  • Typical error and share of results inside the range
  • Wider ranges when the data is thin

In your inbox on Monday

The weekly report lists the expected first week of each of your films still to open, country by country, with its range and accuracy.

  • Per film and per country
  • Range and accuracy in one line
  • Next to last week's results

See it with your own films and countries

On a short call we show live data for the countries, chains or titles you follow, and set up a trial scoped to what you need.

Book a demo
Opening week forecasts - SEATmio